Posted by John McHalePARIS, 18 June 2011. Boeing (NYSE: BA) officials are predicting the commercial aviation market to be $4 trillion for new aircraft during the next two decades with about 33,500 aircraft delivered during that time. The Boeing 2011 Current Market Outlook (CMO) released for the Paris Air Show states that passenger traffic should grow a 5.1 percent annual rate over the long-term with the world fleet doubling by 2030. Single-aisle aircraft will continue to see healthy demand worldwide and increase market share. Fleet make up will change considerably in 20 years with single-aisle jets making up about 70 percent of the total, according to the company forecast.The greatest geographical growth will be seen in China and India, which Boeing officials say will lead to more balanced airplane demand globally. China has had double-digit growth in gross domestic product in recent years and is forecasted to grow at 7 percent per annum, while South Asia, which includes India, is forecasted to grow at 7.1 percent.Boeing officials predict that Asia Pacific will need the most new airplanes by 2030 and will represent the largest market by value of deliveries at more than $1.5 trillion. The region also will account for more than a third of new deliveries around the world, while the Middle East and Latin America also will have strong growth.European and North American carriers will continue to see demand for replacement airplanes as they retire older, less fuel-efficient models. Boeing forecasts 94 percent of the European fleet operating in 2030 will have been delivered after this year, with more environmentally friendly airplanes. Forty percent of all new airplanes delivered over the next two decades will be replacements.Liberalization, as well as fragmentation and new mid-size, long-range airplanes such as the 787 Dreamliner, the 777-200LR (long range,) and 777-300ER (extended range), will increase the need for intermediate twin-aisle jets. Large aircraft, such as the 747-8 Intercontinental, will make up a market segment valued at $270 billion, according to the Boeing reportBoeing officials project the world freighter fleet to increase from 1,760 to 3,500 airplanes with air cargo traffic on average growing at a rate of 5.6 percent over the next 20 years. To view the full Boeing report, visit www.boeing.com/cmo.
