BEIJING - The Boeing Company in Arlington County, Va. projects that China's commercial airplane fleet is expected to more than double by 2043, driven by the country's growing demand for passenger and cargo air travel. This is according to Boeing's 2024 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO) for China. The report provides a long-term forecast for the demand for commercial airplanes and related services in the region. Boeing's CMO is available here: https://www.boeing.com/commercial/market/commercial-market-outlook.
"China's commercial aviation market for passengers and cargo continues to expand, driven by economic growth and airlines building their in-country networks," said Darren Hulst, Boeing's vice president of Commercial Marketing. "As this forecast shows, China's airlines will see strong demand, requiring further growth of their modern fuel-efficient fleets."
Boeing predicts that China's commercial fleet will grow by 4.1% annually, increasing from 4,345 to 9,740 airplanes by 2043. The forecast also expects an annual passenger traffic growth rate of 5.9%, exceeding the global average of 4.7%. This growth in passenger volume will be supported by airlines expanding their networks, and connecting large hubs to smaller cities.
Air travel within China is expected to become the world's largest traffic flow, contributing significantly to the growth of the single-aisle fleet, which will account for more than three-quarters of all new airplane deliveries. Additionally, China is projected to have the largest widebody fleet in the world, with demand for 1,575 new widebody airplanes. The country's freighter fleet, which includes both dedicated and converted models, is expected to nearly triple, driven by the rapid expansion of e-commerce.
Beyond airplane deliveries, the growth of China's aviation industry will also create a substantial need for aviation services. Boeing estimates that Chinese carriers will require services valued at $780 billion, including digital solutions, maintenance, and modifications. Furthermore, the industry will need nearly 430,000 new personnel, including pilots, maintenance technicians, and cabin crew, to support the expanding fleet.
Boeing projects that new airplane deliveries in China from 2024 to 2043 will include 365 regional jets, 6,720 single-aisle airplanes, 1,575 widebody aircraft, and 170 freighters, for a total of 8,830 new airplanes.
