World regional passenger aircraft sales to increase by nearly 5 percent each year through 2029, Embraer predicts
FARNBOROUGH, England, 26 July 2010. World sales of commercial regional passenger aircraft with 30 to 120 seats will total 6,875 over the next two decades, led by North America with 2,400; Europe with 1,510; and China with 950, says Brazilian commercial aircraft manufacturer Embraer in its latest market forecast. This would represent a 4.9 percent annual increase in world regional aircraft sales through 2029.
Embraer released the forecast last week at the Farnborough International Airshow in Farnborough, England. The company forecasts that Latin America will purchase 575 30-to-120-seat passenger aircraft over the next 20 years, while Asia Pacific buys 575, Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent States 405, the Middle East 240, and Africa 220.
Embraer foresees global demand for 6,875 jets in the 30-to-120-seat segment over the next 20 years. The estimated market value of these orders is about $200 billion. Of this total, 2,895 jets should be delivered between 2010 and 2019, and the remaining 3,980 units between 2020 and 2029.
Embraer forecasts that the size of the world fleet of 30-to-120-seat jets will increase from 4,285 aircraft in 2009 to 7,780 in 2029. During this period 3,495 aircraft deliveries will be to support current growth and 3,380 deliveries will replace ageing equipment. By 2029, 21 percent of the current fleet (905 jets) will still be in operation, Embraer predicts.
Commercial aircraft in the 30-to-120-seat category serves low- and medium-density markets and is an essential component of commercial aviation, Embraer says it its market forecast for these kinds of passenger aircraft in the period from 2010 to 2029.
World commercial aviation demand in 2029 will reach 1.68 trillion revenue passenger miles, 2.7 times greater than in 2009, Embraer analysts say. Over the next two decades the U.S. and Europe will decrease their share of world air traffic from 57 percent in 2009 to 44 percent in 2029, while China's annual growth rate will be the highest, at 7.3 percent, Embraer says, predicting that Asia Pacific and China will represent more than one-third of the world air traffic by 2029.
Over the next two decades North America and Europe will see average growth in air traffic of about 3.5 percent per year; Latin America, Asia Pacific, Russia, and the Commonwealth of Independent States will see air traffic grow 6 percent annually; and Africa will average about a 5 percent annual increase in air traffic, Embraer says.
For more information contact Embraer online at www.embraer.com.
John Keller | Editor
John Keller is editor-in-chief of Military & Aerospace Electronics magazine, which provides extensive coverage and analysis of enabling electronic and optoelectronic technologies in military, space, and commercial aviation applications. A member of the Military & Aerospace Electronics staff since the magazine's founding in 1989, Mr. Keller took over as chief editor in 1995.
